SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT

FOR THE SMALL, MOBILE, ICBM SYSTEM TO ACHIEVE THE DESIRED MISSION ENDURANCE, IT MUST SURVIVE VARIOUS FORMS OF ATTACK. SINCE ITS SURVIVABILITY IS BASED ON MOBILITY, IT IS NECESSARY THAT MOVEMENT TIMELINES BE DEVELOPED FOR THE VARIOUS EXISTING AND PROJECTED SURVEILLANCE/RECONNAISSANCE AND WEAPONS THREATS AND THEIR TIME LAGS. THIS PROPOSED STUDY WILL DEVELOP THE CRITERIA FOR ESTABLISHING SMALL MISSILE MOVEMENT TIMELINES AS A FUNCTION OF THREAT PARAMETERS. THE THREATS CONSIDERED WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY SURVEILLANCE/RECONNAISSANCE, WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED C3 TIMELINES, BUT ALSO THE WEAPONS WHICH WOULD BE EMPLOYED AGAINST THE SMALL MISSILE SYSTEM. THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS PHASE I EFFORT WILL BE TO SURVEY THE EXISTING THREAT TIMELINES, FORECASE THE THREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MID-1990 TO 2000 TIME FRAME, ESTABLISH LAUNCHER DETECTABILITY, DEVELOP PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL VERSUS MOVEMENT TIMELINES, DEVELOP A TYPICAL MOVEMENT TIMELINE, AND PREPARE A COMPUTER MODEL TO BE DEVELOPED DURING PHASE II WHICH WILL ASSESS A WIDE VARIETY OF PROPOSED THREAT SUITES AGAINST THE MOBILE SYSTEM FORCE.