Short-Term Forecasting of Severe Convective Storms Using Quantitative Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery

The results of SBIR Phase I suggest that it will be possible to make much improved short-term severe weather forecasts (¿nowcasts¿) for severe convective storms and especially for tornadoes by using GOES multi-spectral satellite imagery in conjunction with more traditional tornado-forecasting parameters. When the clouds in a region have a strong linear profile of satellite-retrieved effective radius over virtually their entire depths and when glaciation occurs in these clouds at the temperature of homogenous freezing (i.e., ~-38oC), there is a much increased risk of tornadoes, especially when CAPE, helicity and wind shear are concurrently large. The next step under SBIR Phase II will be the development of an operational system that will lead to improved severe storm watches and warnings. Phase I did not provide nearly enough time for full method development. Consequently, Phase II must involve the development and use of an automated algorithm, adapted to real-time imagery, which will quantify the tornado risk of the clouds in each image. Analysis of the much larger sample will be made in order to quantify the probability of severe weather in each cloud system as a function of time. Logistic regression will again be used for this quantification. The third task of SBIR Phase II will involve an operational real-time test of the methodology during the tornado season of 2008 in conjunction with personnel with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). The real-time data stream for this effort will be provided by NASA Langley¿s Cloud and Radiation Research Program. Maps of tornado probability will be generated in real time using the specialized methodology to quantify cloud properties, the logistic regression coefficients and the probability of tornadoes. An objective assessment of the value of the products will be sought on a continuing basis from their users. The tasks of SBIR Phase II will be accomplished under the umbrella of Woodley Weather Consultants through the efforts of the talented research team that participated in Phase I