Methods for Pre-Flight Risk Assessment in Army Aviation

Decision Science Associates, Inc. (DSA) proposes to design and prototype an automated decision aid for the assessment of pre-flight risk by Army rotorcraft pilots. This aid will support the rapid assessment of risk based on readily available information. Phase I consists of 4 tasks. In Task 1 we will identify sources of information and determine the critical predictive factors and the types of data available, both objective and subjective. In Task 2, we will examine the strengths and weaknesses of at least 3 feasible analytical approaches: regression methods, Bayesian statistics, and multiattribute utility theory. Candidate algorithms will be developed based on these three approaches and on combinations of the approaches. In Task 3, we will partially develop at least one prototype system in order to test and demonstrate concepts. An optional Task 4 is proposed in which preliminary testing of algorithms would be performed.