BEHAVIOR - QUANTITATIVE MODEL

THE SUCCESS OF FUTURE ARMY PERSONNEL PROGRAMS RESTS ON OVER ONE MILLION INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS TO ENTER OR REMAIN IN THE FORCE WHICH ARE MADE EACH YEAR BY CURRENT AND POTENTIAL ARMY PERSONNEL. CURRENT APPROACHES TO UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING THESE INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS ARE LIMITED BY THEIR FAILURE TO CAPTURE THE MULTITUDE OF VARIABLES AND CONSIDERATIONS WHICH PEOPLE WEIGH IN EVALUATING THEIR OPTIONS. DECISION ANALYSIS THEORY AND DECISION-ANALYTIC METHODS PROVIDE A MEANS FOR SYSTEMATICALLY PORTRAYING AND EVALUATING THE PROCESS OF INDIVIDUAL DECISION-MAKING. DSC PROPOSES TO APPLY DECISION-ANALYTIC APPROACHES, SPECIFICALLY MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY ANALYSIS, TO DEVELOP A PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL OF INDIVIDUAL REENLISTMENT DECISIONS, AND THEN TO EXTEND THIS PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL TO BUILD A DESCRIPTIVE/PREDICTIVE MODEL OF THE REENLISTMENT DECISION THAT WILL ALLOW THE ARMY TO IMPROVEITS ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THESE DECISIONS, AND TO FORMULATE POLICIES AND PROGRAMS WHICH WILL BE COST-EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS TO MEETING FUTURE PERSONNEL NEEDS.