A PERSONALIST APPROACH TO ESTIMATING POPULATIONS OF INSTITUTIONS APPLIED TO MARKET RESEARCH

WHEN A BUSINESSMAN OR OTHER DECISION MAKER NEEDS AN ESTIMATE (SAY, OF SALES OF A NEW INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT), AND HEHAS ACCESS TO RICH AND VARIED INFORMATION, BUT LIMITED RESOURCES HE NORMALLY MAKES HEAVY USE OF JUDGEMENT IN HIS ENQUIRY. PERSONALIST (BAYESIAN) STATISTICS PROVIDES A LOGICAL FRAMEWORK TO GUIDE THE USE OF SUCH JUDGMENT, IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SAMPLE OR OTHER DATA. IN PARTICULAR, IT PRODUCES ESTIMATES IN THE FORM OF PERSONAL PROBABILITIES CONVENIENT FOR ANALYZING DECISIONS. DECISION SCIENCE CONSORTIUM, INC. WE WILL DEVELOP A PERSONALIST APPROACH TO INSTITUTIONAL ESTIMATION; PARTICULARLY FOR INDUSTRIAL MARKET RESEARCH, WHERE JUDGMENT IS CRUCIAL AND CURRENT PRACTICE, BASED EITHER ON CLASSICAL STATISTICS OR UNAIDED INTUITION, LEADS TO COSTLY ERRORS. (POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS TO ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND GOVERNMENT REPORTING ON INSTITUTIONS WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERED). PHASE I WILL EXPLORE HOW THREE PERSONALIST (BUT UNORTHODOX) CONCEPTS CAN ENHANCE THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF EACH PHASE OF INSTITUTIONAL ESTIMATION, FROM THE PLANNING PHASE (INCLUDING BUDGET ALLOCATION AND DESIGNING THE MIX OF APPROACHES SUCH AS SAMPLING, DIRECT ASSESSMENT, AND DESK RESEARCH), TO THE DATA COLLECTION PHASE (INCLUDING SAMPLING FRAMES, STRUCTURE, SELECTION, AND MEASUREMENT;, AND FINALLY TO THE ANALYSIS PHASE (DEVELOPING A FINAL ESTIMATE OR ESTIMATES). DECOMPOSED ERROR ANALYSIS ANALYZES THE ESTIMATION ERROR INTO ITS SEPARABLE SOURCES: RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS, MEASUREMENT, FRAME BIAS, ETC. (BROWN, 1969). ANALYSIS OF PLURAL RESEARCH DEALS WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTEGRATION OF SEVERAL ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES (BROWN & LINDLEY, 1982; 1986). PARTIAL CONDITIONING OF CONSEQUENCES ASSESSES THE DECISIONAL VALUE OF PROPOSED RESEARCH (BROWN, 1978). PHASE II WILL DEVELOP OPERATIONAL TECHNIQUES AND COMPLEMENTARY DATA RESOURCES, AND TEST THEM ON LIVE MARKET RESEARCH PROBLEMS.