LAUNCH VEHICLE COST MODEL DEVELOPMENT

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDEPENDENT, OBJECTIVE MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE PROGRAM COSTS OF SPACE LAUNCH SYSTEMS IS PROPOSED. PARAMETRIC COST MODELS WILL BE DEVELOPED FOR BOTH EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES AND REUSABLE VEHICLES (I.E. THE SHUTTLE). A DETAILED COST DATA BASE FOR LAUNCH VEHICLES WILL BE GENERATED; AND WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY RAW COST DATA BUT INFORMATION ON NON-TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING THOSE COSTS. COST DATA WILL BE APPROPRIATELY NORMALIZED TO CORRECT FOR THESE FACTORS. AN IN-DEPTH DATA BASE ON THE TECHNOLOGICAL AND PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS OF U.S. AND FOREIGN LAUNCH VEHICLES WILL ALSO BE GENERATED. THE NORMALIZED COST DATA AND TECHNICAL DATA WILL BE CORRELATED TO ESTABLISH MATHEMATICAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN COSTS AND UNDERLYING TECHNICAL PARAMETERS. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS WILL BE ESTABLISHED AT THE MAJOR SUBASSEMBLY AND SUBSYSTEM LEVEL. MAJOR COST COMPONENTS WILL THEN BE BUILT UP TO TOTAL VEHICLE COSTS. A FIRST-ORDER IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RESULTING ALGORITHMS WILL BE PROVIDED ON A MICROCOMPUTER. THE MODEL WILL ALLOW ANALYSTS TO INDEPENDENTLY ESTIMATE THE DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATIONS COST OF PROPOSED LAUNCH SYSTEMS, OR OF ALTERNATIVE PROCUREMENT RATES FOR SUCH SYSTEMS, BEFORE MAKING MAJOR PROGRAM COMMITMENTS. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT UTILIZATION OF SCARCE AIR FORCE RESOURCES.