AER PROPOSES TO DEVELOP A NEW CONCEPT IN PROVIDING WEATHER \FORECASTING FOR INDUSTRY, MADE POSSIBLE BY THE DECREASING COSTS OF POWERFUL COMPUTERS.

AER PROPOSES TO DEVELOP A NEW CONCEPT IN PROVIDING WEATHER \FORECASTING FOR INDUSTRY, MADE POSSIBLE BY THE DECREASING COSTS OF POWERFUL COMPUTERS. IMPROVED SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS WOULD BE OBTAINED BY RUNNING A MODEL ON THE USER'S COMPUTER. THE MODEL WOULD ACCESS THE FORECASTS OF THE NATIONAL METEROLOGICAL CENTER AND MODIFY THEM THROUGH A DETAILED SIMULATION OF THE PHYSICS OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES,TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOCAL TERRAIN. THE MODEL WOULD BE DESIGNED TO COMPUTE EXPLICITY THE VARIABLES NEEDED BY THE USUALITY CONTROL MODULE OF THE SOFTWARE WOULD PROVIDE DATA TO IMPROVE THE PARAMETERSOF THE MODEL. THE SYSTEM COULD BE INTEGRATED INTO OTHER TECHNICAL OR ECONOMIC MODELS OF THE USER. IN PHASE I THE FEASIBILITY OF THIS CONCEPT WILL BE DEMONSTRATED BY DESIGNING A PROTOTYPE DEALING WITH THE ACTUAL NEEDS OF THE UTILITIES FOR METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION IN THEIR LOAD FORECASTS. IN PHASE II THE PROTOTYPE WILL BE SET UP AND TESTED. IF THIS CONCEPT CAN BE SHOWN TO IMPROVE THE SHORT RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS, IT HAS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR COMMERCIAL APPLICATIONS, SINCE THERE ARE MANY INDUSTRIES SUCH AS THE UTILITIES, OIL AND GAS INDUSTRIES, OR AGRICULTURE WHOSE ACTIVITIES ARE AFFECTED BY THE WEATHER. SUSUCH PHYSICALLY BASED FORECAST MODELS COULD ALSO BE INTEGRATED INTO THE REGIONAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS BEING DEVELOPED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE POTENTIAL COMMERCIAL APPLICATION AS DESCRIBED BY THE AWARDEE: ALL INDUSTRIES WHOSE ACTIVITIES ARE WEATHER DEPEND ENT COULD BENEFIT FROM THIS RESEARCH.