IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT MOST NUCLEAR WARS IMAGINED WOULD CAUSE DECREASED SOLAR ENERGY AT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE WORLD AND THAT THE SMOKE AND DUST CAUSING THE SUNLIGHT ATTENUATION WOULD PERSIST FOR MONTHS TO YEARS.

IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT MOST NUCLEAR WARS IMAGINED WOULD CAUSE DECREASED SOLAR ENERGY AT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE WORLD AND THAT THE SMOKE AND DUST CAUSING THE SUNLIGHT ATTENUATION WOULD PERSIST FOR MONTHS TO YEARS. THE ASSUMPTIONS INVOKED IN REACHING SUCH ESTIMATED EFFECTS ARE SUBJECT TO GREAT UNCERTAINTY AND MERIT MORE ATTENTION. WE PROPOSE TO PROVIDE INDEPENDENT BEST ESTIMATES OF MEAN VALUES AND A MEASURE OF THE UNCERTAINTY/VARIABILITY OF EACH CONTRIBUTING FACTOR, TOGETHER WITH SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION. AREAS AT RISK, BOTH URBAN/ SUBURBAN AND WILDLAND, FUEL LOADING, BURN RATES AND WEIGHTS, SMOKE VOLUME (MASS) GENERATED, SOOT AND ASH PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS, ALTITUDES ACHIEVED, AND SOME MEASURES OF THE RATES OF DISPERSION, CONVERSION, AND SETTLEMENT. THE POSSIBLE VARIANCE IS LARGE, SINCE MOST OF THESE UNCERTAIN FACTORS ENTER AN OPTICAL THICKNESS MEASURE IN THE EXPONENT OF AN EXPONENTIAL FACTOR.