Feasibility of Using a Systems Analytic Technique to Model the Critical Processess Supporting Proliferation of Weapons..

This proposal investigates the feasibility of using a systems analytic approach to model the critical processes supporting proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It uses as a framework for synthesis a previously developed systems analysis model of biological weapons proliferation. The proposed approach consists of four tasks to: 1) extend the BW analytical process to encompass all WMD, 2) develop surrogate indicators which will allow screening for latent capabilities for WMD, 3) modify the model to allow detection of proliferation attempts by extra-national entities, and 4) investigate ways of making the dynamic linking structure of the systems analysis approach visible. Anticipated Benefits: The model of proliferation dynamics which would result from our proposed effort would help focus resources in the proliferation areas of greatest need, suggest ways in which our resources devoted to countering proliferation could be best allocated, and be used to examine policy initiatives for their effect on global WMD proliferation propensities. The process methodology has application to business in the area of competitive analysis.