USAF Engine Maintenance Cost Analysis Based on Probabilistic

To aid the USAF in meeting it's IHPTET maintenance cost reduction goals, Stress Technology Incorporated proposes a probabilistic engineering, risk-based economic assessment tool for analyzing maintenance cost reduction. The software tool will integrate state-of-the-art probabilistic engineering analysis, maintenance cost models, and an NPV-based (Net Present Value) economic assessment to assess how newly designed/refurbished engine components will impact base/depot level maintenance costs. The tool could eventually be utilized as an USAF quantifying cost reductions from engine component suppliers and OEM's. In addition, the tool will also provide insight into optimum inspection and maintenance intervals based on the analysis results.During this Phase I effort, the probabilistic engineering/risk analysis and NPV-based economic cost analysis model will be developed to assess the cost benefits of new damage tolerant designs in terms of specified maintenance plans. Engineering information from several sources including; 1.) Historical and empircal component failure databases, 2.) Probabilstic FE (BLADE-GT) design analysis for HCF, LCF, and creep failure modes and 3.) Measured mission profiles from existing Engine Health Monitoring (EHM) systems will be utilized as multi-level engineering inputs to the program. By working directly with OEM's, in particular GEs COMPEAT$TM Cost Model Team, current maintenance cost analysis procedures and techniques for integrating probabilistic engineering design/analysis will be studied so that this program will remain consistent with current industry procedures. As a result of the Phase I effort, the maintenance cost comparison/optimization tool will accept the probabilistic engineering results/data from any of these levels to assess the maintenance cost benefits of new component designs or optimal replacement/refurbish/refurbishment intevals for specified components.The proposed program has genuine support from GE Aircraft Engines and Allison Advanced Development Company, both of which recognize, the benefits of a maintenance cost analysis program utilizing probabilistic component lifting and risk analysis programs and represents unparalleled value to the USAF.