Assessment of Techniques for Nuclear Testing that Evades Detection

Clandestine testing of prototype devices is a high priority for a developing nuclear weapons. A deterrent against proliferation of nuclear weapons can be detection of such tests. Limited technical capabilities of developing nations mean clandestine weapons tests may be detonated slightly above or below a land or water surface. However, there exists a substantial literature conceming signatures and detection methodologies available to any government. It is assumed that clandestine tests will be used to avoid detection by conventional methods. Observable signatures of nuclear explosions include: Optical, Seismic, Hydroacoustic, Acoustic, Ionospheric and satellite sensor detected EMP. For near-surface configurations, some of these signatures may be at variance from standard tests. Selection of local clandestine test environment by a knowledgeable party can reduce the probability of detection. Optical signatures can be degraded by shallow burial in water or soil; hydroacoustic signals from shocks and bubble pulsations will be altered by near-surface bursts; seismic, EMP and acoustic signatures are also changed by depth. We will provide a preliminary determination of optimal means of simultaneous evasion of multiple detection systems by choice of depth/height in available media using existing calculational capabilities. We will indicate possible approaches to mitigation of such evasion. Anticipated Benefits/Potential Applications - Quantification of optimal test detection evasion techniques likely to be employed by nuclear proliferators will allow orientation of existing or future fielded monitoring methods to be configured or developed for mitigation and promotion of the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.