Dynamic Re-entry Impact Forecasting Tool

Proliferation of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) regime increases the need for tools that can provide risk mitigation strategies associated with uncontrolled re-entry events. Historical events such as NASA Skylab and the Soviet Cosmos as well as recent events like the Tiangong-1 space station have demonstrated the potential dangers and risks associated with re-entry debris. The oversaturation in LEO will lead to debris causing events and in turn increased probabilities of uncontrolled re-entries.áThese factors highlight the need for a tool which can take orbits and real-time observations to provide a medium to high fidelity forecasting of potential re-entry events. The Dynamic Re-entry Impact Forecasting Tool (DRIFT) will take in high fidelity Low Earth Orbit (LEO) drag data from Arcfieldĺs Dragster model and integrate that with advanced orbital propagation tools, graphical visualizations, and external observation processing algorithms.áDRIFT will provide robust re-entry prediction probabilities along with the resulting potential debris fields and the graphical visualizations of such events. This will help ensure the safe and responsible design for end of life planning of future LEO missions as well as reducing potential risks to human life and property in the event of uncontrolled re-entries.