ESTIMATE FINANCIAL LIABILITY FOR LONG-TERM CARE

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO DEVELOP STATE-OF-THE- ART TECHNOLOGY TO PROVIDE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE FINANCIAL LIABILITY FOR ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS SOCIAL HEALTH MAINTENANCE ORGANIZATIONS (SHMOS) AND SMALL INSURANCE COMPANIES THAT OFFER LONG TERM CARE BENEFITS. ESTIMATING THE FUTURE FINANCIAL LIABILITIES OF AN ORGANIZATION REQUIRESFORECASTS OF THE NEED FOR LONG-TERM CARE SERVICES. THIS MEANS THAT COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF HEALTH AND DISABILITY STATUS OVER TIME MUST BE MODELED. THE PROJECT WILL ALSO DISAGGREGATE ESTIMATES OF PRIVATE RESPONSES AND POLICIES. REALISTIC ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THEPROJECTIONS. SHMOS AND RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES NEED THIS TYPE OF INFORMATION AND THEREFORE REPRESENT POTENTIAL MARKETS. DATA SOURCES WILL INCLUDE THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING'S LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF AGING.