STOCHASTIC METHODS IN PROTECTIVE STRUCTURE DESIGN

PROTECTIVE STRUCTURES DESIGNED TO WITHSTAND THE EFFECTS OF CONVENTIONAL (NONNUCLEAR) MUNITIONS ARE BUILT PRIMARY ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC DESIGN PROCEDURES. REAL-WORLD VARIABILITIES IN SITE CHARACTERISTICS, STRUCTURAL ATTRIBUTES LIKE STRENGTH AND STIFFNESS, AND WEAPON DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS ARE GENERALLY NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN CURRENT DESIGN SCHEMES. THIS PROPOSED EFFORT SEEKS TO DEVELOP MORE GENERALIZED DESIGN TOOLS WHICH; A) CAN TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE NATURAL RANDOM VARIABILITY OF QUANTITATIVE DESIGN PARAMETERS, B) CAN ASSESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN NONRANDOM ISSUES SUCH AS MODELING AND BOUNDARY CONDITION ASSUMPTIONS, AND C) CAN ACCOMMODATE FLEXIBILITY IN MODELING STRUCTURE BEHAVIORAL CHANGES CAUSED BY EVOLUTIONS IN THE WEAPONS ENVIRONMENT.