APPLICATION OF MODERN MATHEMATICS TO THEATRE AIR WARFARE INTELLIGENCE

THE OPPORTUNITY ADDRESSED HERE IS TO QUANTIFY THE UNCERTAINTY ASPECTS OF INDICATIONS & WARNING, SITUATION ASSESSMENT, AND PREDICTION, IN A UNIFORM AND CONCEPTUALLY SIMPLE, MATHEMATICAL MODEL WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS DECISION MAKING ASPECTS OF COLLECTION MANAGEMENT. THE MATHEMATICS NEATLY FIT THE CASUAL MODEL OF INTELLIGENCE RECENTLY PROPOSED BY THE CIA AND IS BASED ON A STRAIGHTFORWARD GENERALIZATION OF BAYSEAN INFERENCE. IN THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS PROBABILILTIES HAVE REGAINED RESPECTABILITY AS A TECHNIQUE FOR INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS. NEW RESEARCH RESULTS INDICATE THAT BAYSEAN TECHNIQUES ARE NOW BOTH FEASIBLE AND APPROPRIATE FOR INTELLIGENCE WORK. THE THRUST OF THE EFFORT PROPOSED HERE IS TO CONFIRM THE HYPOTHESIS THAT BAYSEAN TECHNIQUES ARE NOW BOTH APPROPRIATE AND PRACTICAL AND ALSO POINT THE WAY FOR APPLICATION OF THESE TECHNIQUES TO REALISTIC THEATER WARFARE INTELLIGENCE PROBLEMS.