A Generic Prognostic Toolkit for Characterizing Failure Progression Rates

"Impact Technologies proposes to develop and demonstrate a generic software modeling tool that integrates advanced stochastic failure mode modeling, measured failure progression rate features and inspection data, and available experience bases, to enablethe predictive part of Prognostics and Health Management for critical aircraft components. The state-of-the-art structural/material level modeling technology aspect of this tool will include the utilization of a stochastic, physics-of-failure model,system level information fusion, and adaptive model updating techniques for "tuning" key failure mode variables at a local material/damage-site. The failure rate prediction strategies will be implemented within a probabilistic framework to directlyidentify confidence bounds associated with specific component failure mode progression. The proposed modeling scheme will minimize inherent modeling and operational uncertainties by updating local (damage site) material/fatigue properties, componentloading/forcing and failure mode contribution/interaction via sensed system measurements that evolve as damage progresses. By providing continuous updates/adjustments to the critical parameters used by the probabilistic fatigue/damage models based onobserving system level measurements, more accurate failure rate predictions can be made throughout the life of the component. Finally, this software tool will further aid PHM by acting as a prognostics t