A Framework for an Optimal and Adaptive BMDS Firing Doctrine

"The BMD program has been redirected to develop fully integrated, layered defenses capable of defending against all ranges of threats. A critical aspect of this development is an integrated firing doctrine; i.e., that part of the battle management systemthat allocates interceptors to attackers across all the layers. Optimal firing doctrine is a function of both offense and defense capabilities. Therefore, optimization is potentially an important feature of evolutionary, capabilities-based defenses. Theoverall objective of the proposed research is to develop a framework for an optimal and adaptive BMDS firing doctrine. The framework is based on an adaptive structure in which the defense starts with a set of planning assumptions and then, as the attackunfolds, real-time estimates of system parameters are used to determine the allocation to the known attackers and planning assumptions are updated to determine the reserve for possible future attackers. Implementation is by an innovative combination ofnon-linear resource allocation techniques, Bayesian analysis, and decision theory. Phase I will focus on a preliminary definition of that part of the framework associated with the coordination of firing doctrine across the boost and midcourse layers. Anoptimal and adaptive firing doctrine is required for evolving, capability based defenses. The anticipated results will set the stage for detailed development at the overall BMDS level as