Comprehensive Uncertainty Estimation for CFD

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is the primary tool of aerodynamic design, and the ability to reduce and quantifyuncertainties in CFD results is essential. Efforts throughout theCFD community are aimed at improving the accuracy of CFD methods. The proposed work will develop computational algorithms and softwarethat yield comprehensive estimates of uncertainty in CFD results. The methods involve error modeling, in which specific sources oferror, such as truncation error, and error in the transition andturbulence modeling, are related to the errors and uncertainty in the solution via solutions of an error equation. These methodswill be relatively comprehensive, accounting for the dominant sourcesof uncertainty in typical CFD analyses, and yielding the uncertainties in all data predicted by the CFD solution. For example, the uncertainty in distributed aerodynamic heating can be computed. The techniques to be used in the work have been demonstrated in predictions of uncertainty due to truncation error in structured-gridCFD data. The proposed work will extend these methods tounstructured-grid CFD and to transition and turbulence modeling errors.