TECHNIQUES FOR OPTION GENERATION IN DECISION MAKING

THE PROPOSED PHASE I RESEARCH WILL BUILD ON ALPHATECH'S THEORETICAL WORK ON THE GENERATION OF CRITICAL OPTIONS IN TACTICAL PLANNING AND ALPHATECH'S PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE OBSERVING PLANNING DEFICIENCIES IN FIELD EXERCISES. BOTH NORMATIVE THEORY AND DESCRIPTIONS OF ACTUAL PLANNING BEHAVIOR WILL BE USED TO IDENTIFY AREAS WHERE TACTICAL PLANNERS NEED DECISION SUPPORT IN ORDER TO GENERATE CRITICAL OPTIONS. FOUR CANDIDATE APPROACHES FOR DECISION AIDING ARE IDENTIFIED: 1) CONVEYING A MORE REALISTIC SENSE OF SITUATION UNCERTAINTY, INCLUDING MOST LIKELY AND WORST CASES; 2) CALCULATING MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM GAINS AND LOSSES; 3) CONVEYING A REALISTIC SENSE OF THE SPACE OF POSSIBLE OPTIONS; AND 4) FORCING CONSIDERATION OF FUTURE INFORMATION AVAILABILITY. ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES WILL BE EVALUATED USING A PROTOTYPICAL TACTICAL PLANNING TEST PROBLEM. THE TWO MOST PROMISING APPROACHE WILL BE TESTED IN AN EXPERIMENT USING A DECISION AID "MOCK UP" ON A MACINTOSH MICROCOMPUTER TO CONVEY TO SUBJECTS THE INFORMATION THAT WOULD BE GENERATED BY A DECISION AID. FINAL SELECTION OF THE MOST PROMISING OPTION GENERATION AIDING APPROACH WILL BE BASED ON EVALUATION OF THE EXPERIMENT.