An Interactive Microcomputer Program for Studying the Effects of

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Bostrom, Alan AWARDEE ORGANIZATION: Crunch Software Corp. 7677 Oakport Street, Suite 470 Oakland, CA 94621 TELEPHONE NUMBER: (510) 562-9900 AWARDEE NUMBER: 200-93-0608 The objective of this project is to create a microcomputer program to be used by anyone planning or studying the effects of tobacco tax increases. The program will use state and age-specific data bases to allow maximum usefulness of the resulting projections. Projections of tobacco consumption, revenues, and health related costs will be made from historical data, estimates of state and age-specific price elasticity. The models will incorporate auxiliary variables such as real disposable income and state age distribution. The statistical methodology is based on autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA). The program will come with prepackaged models but will allow the user prescribe different models and refit if desired. Output will be both graphical and tabular, descriptive and statistical. The program will not require statistical or computer expertise to use. In Phase I we will develop this program using data from California and Michigan only. Phase II expands the scope to all the states and adds several program enhancements.