The PGREDS Simulation Toolkit for Population Modeling

Recent events have put great demands on the simulation community for accurate simulation of mission rehearsal and training scenarios based on Support and Stability Operations (SASO), Operations Other Than War (OOTW), and Operations concerning AsymmetricThreat. Current mission rehearsal systems such as OneSAF and WARSIM do not satisfactorily model civilian and non-military combatant sides crucial in the outcome of these operations. Gnosys and SAIC propose to build PGREDS, a tool that will allow ascenario designer to bring to bear multi-disciplinary models (political, geographic, religious economic and demographic) to define civilian and non-military sides in scenario generation and execution systems. The strength of tools lies in itsincorporation of any number of lead-edge, interdisciplinary models, its ability to resolve multiple, potentially conflicting answers into a single, consistent resolution, and in its ability to easily interface with existing scenario generation andexecution systems. PGREDS will have applicability to military simulation as well as private industry population modeling needs.The anticipated results of the proposed approach are:1) The addition of realistic civilian and non-combatant sides in current simulation systems such as OneSAF or AEAS without rewriting them.2) The ability to include cutting-edge models for civilian and non-military sides from several different disciplines as they are developed.3) The definition of a framework by which newly developed models for civilian and non-military sides can be ?plugged? into leading edge, mission rehearsal systems easily.4) Making the process of employing methodologies from traditionally ignored fields of study (such as the social sciences) into leading edge simulation systems.5) The ability to run multiple, interdisciplinary models and vary the gravity of their results, enables a scenario designer to emphasize certain results over others (e.g. cultural over economic models) based on the specifics of a mission training scenario(such as location, history, commanders judgments, etc.)The strategy for commercialization is two-fold:1) As an add-on component to existing/emerging military simulation systems.2) As a stand-alone population simulation system for industrial enterprises.Current users of simulation systems would purchase PGREDS to help them conduct SASO, OOTW or Asymmetric threat scenarios. The system will be offered as an add-on at the completion of Phase II to two simulation systems: OneSAF Objective System (OOS) andthe Automated Exercise and Assessment System (AEAS).The target market for commercial applications is the industrial and governmental entities that wish to understand the likes and dislikes of population segments. It will also have value to organizations involved in public policy to predict the population?sresponse to certain stimuli ? this response may take the form of approval, position, or demeanor on a certain subject. A firm may also use PGREDS to gage population response to a marketing campaign. A local government may use the system to predict theapproval/ disapproval of the constituents on a certain legislative issue.