Portraying Uncertainty in Battlefield Weather Situational Awareness

The proposed initiative will yield a working prototype of our innovative Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal (WRAP) system that helps quantify uncertainty in disparate weather forecasts and presents this information to users in highly intuitive ways thatfacilitate at-a-glance analysis and rapid decision making. Next Century Corporation has teamed with Marcus Weather Inc. to build the WRAP system based on our combined expertise in developing solutions for customers in weather-sensitive businesses as wellas designing highly intuitive, easy-to-use graphical user interfaces and decision aids for a wide array of application domains. Some key innovations proposed are: 1) enabling the user to interactively adjust the minimum certainty threshold that must besatisfied for those weather conditions being forecast; 2) providing a temporal slider that enables users to interactively view battlespace conditions over time, either by going forward in time based on forecasts and predictions or by going backward in timeto view historical data including actual, predictive, and certainty model overlays; and, 3) allowing users to perform an interactive review and comparison of predicted vs. actual weather conditions to aid in hotwash/training activities and to aid analystsin tuning of predictive models, rule sets, and uncertainty thresholds.