ANALYSIS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS EFFECTS ON STRATEGIC STRUCTURES

SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN RECENT YEARS TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE MODELS WHICH CAN PREDICT THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON STRATEGIC STRUCTURES. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, HOWEVER, IN THE CONFIDENCE LEVELS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THESE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES. THIS APPROACH WOULD IDENTIFY AND PRIORITIZE THOSE ACTIVITIES, ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED BUDGETARY AND SCHEDULING CONSIDERATIONS, WHICH WOULD MOST EFFICIENTLY ACCOMPLISH THE TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES NECESSARY TO ADDRESS RELEVANT LETHALITY AND VULNERABILITY ISSUES. THE PROPOSED EFFORT WILL DEVELOP AND VALIDATE SUCH A METHODOLOGY FOR AN ILLUSTRATIVE ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE MISTY ECHO PROJECT USING A DELPHI APPROACH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY: REVIEWING THE STATE-OF-THE-ART, EMPHASIZING IDENTIFICATION OF NECESSARY MODEL ELEMENTS; FORMULATING R&D TARGETS; DEVELOPING A NETWORK OF R&D AND SUPPORT ACTIVITIES TO MEET THE TARGETS WITH ASSOCIATED COST AND SCHEDULING CONSIDERATIONS; ESTIMAGING RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ACTIVITY; AND CALCULATING BENEFIT/COST RATIOS. THE RESULTING METHODOLOGY WILL REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN CURRENT MODELS AND CAN, UNDER THE PHASE II EFFORT, BE EXTENDED TO OTHER R&D PROGRAMS WITHIN DNA. THE OVERALL BENEFIT WILL BE TO ENHANCE NATIONAL SECURITY BY MORE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYSTEMS. THE METHODOLOGY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR APPLICATION TO OTHER DNA PROGRAMS AND A WIDE RANGE OF OTHER R&D PROCESSES.