A MODEL TO EVALUATE LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE POLICIES

IT IS PLANNED TO DEVELOP A COMPUTER MODEL TO EVALUATE LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE POLICIES. THE MODEL WILL FORM THE BASE OF AN ADVISORY SERVICE FOR INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS CONSIDERING THE PURCHASE OF THESE POLICIES. IN CONTRAST TO EXISTING MODELS, THE EVALUATION MODEL WILL BESPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO INCORPORATE THE RESTRICTIONS AND CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY EXISTING POLICIES, INCLUDING THOSE BASED ON LEVELS OF NURSING HOME CARE AND PREVIOUS INSTITUTIONALIZATION. THE MODEL WILL ACCOUNT FOR INDIVIDUAL HEALTH, DISABILITY, AND DEMOGRAPHIC STATUS, FOR REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN LONG-TERM CARE COST AND UTILIZATION, AND FOR INSURANCE-INDUCED DEMAND, HOME CARE BENEFITS, AND READMISSION TO NURSING HOMES AFTER DISCHARGE. BASED ON A MARKOV OR STATE-TRANSITION DESIGN, THE MODEL WILLUSE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES ESTIMATED FROM LARGE NATIONAL SURVEYS AND REGIONAL LONGITUDINAL STUDIES. THE MODEL WILL BE UPDATED AS NEW DATA BECOME AVAILABLE FROM ONGOING STUDIES AND ANALYSES. THE GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO CREATEAN ONGOING ADVISORY SERVICE TO AID THE ELDERLY AND OTHER INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS IN MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS REGARDING THE PURCHASE OF LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE.