STOCHASTIC METHODS IN PROTECTIVE STRUCTURES

A PHASE I EFFORT IS PROPOSED TO INTEGRATE PREVIOUS WORK AND DEVELOP THE NEEDED RESEARCH BASE TO ASSESS AND DEVELOP STOCHASTIC METHODS FOR PROTECTIVE DESIGN FOR NON-NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THE CORNERSTONE OF THIS EFFORT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN (RBD) PROCEDURE. THERE ARE SEVERAL WELL DEVELOPED RBD PROCEDURES (LOAD AND RESISTANCE FACTORS, FIRST-ORDER SECOND-MOMENT, AND MONTE CARLO METHODS) THAT ARE RELEVANT TO STOCHASTIC PROTECTIVE DESIGN. AN INFORMED SELECTION OF ONE OF THESE METHODS REQUIRES, FIRST, AN ANALYSIS OF THE UNCERTAINTIES; AND SECOND, AN ASSESSMENT OF COMPUTATIONALS SIMPLICITY/PREDICTION ACCURACY TRADEOFFS. HENCE, THE PROPOSED PHASE I TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES ARE: (1) IDENTIFY AND ANALYZE UNCERTAINTIES FOR EACH BASIC STRUCTURAL RESPONSE FAILURE MODE FOR PROTECTIVE STRUCTURES; (2) REVIEW STOCHASTIC METHODS AND PERFORM CALCULATIONS OF PROBABILITY OF SURVIVAL USING EACH OF THE ALTERNATIVE RBD PROCEDURES FOR THE RELEVANT FAILURE MODES FOR TWO PROTECTIVE STRUCTURE DESIGNS; AND (3) DEVELOP AND PRESENT A DETAILED PLAN OF THE TASKS REQUIRED TO DEVELOP STATE-OF-THE-ART RBD PROCEDURES FOR EACH LOAD-RESPONSE MECHANISM.