ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE: MODIFICATION OF CHEMICAL COMPOSITIONS OPTICAL PROPERTIES AND CLIMATE

IN THE LAST TWO YEARS, THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY LARGE COOLING OF THE LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESULTING FROM THE SOOT AND DUST INJECTED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE EXPLOSIONS AND SECONDARY FIRES FROM NUCLEAR EXCHANGES, THE SO-CALLED "NUCLEAR WINTER" SCENARIOS. HERE WE ARGUE THAT, IN ADDITION TO DUST AND SOOT, A LARGE NUMBER OF TRACE GASES (NO[X], H[2]0, HC, CH[4]) CAN ALSO BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE, IN AMOUNTS COMPARABLE TO A NORMAL ONE-YEAR INVENTORY FOR MANY OF THE ATMOSPHERE'S MOST IMPORTANT INDIVIDUAL TRACE GASES. THESE TRACE GASES ARE CHEMICALLY ACTIVE AND HAVE THE ABILITY TO ALTER THE COMPOSITIONS OF THE RADIATIVELY-ACTIVE SPECIES WHICH, TO A LARGE EXTENT, DETERMINE THE OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CONTROL THE EARTH'S CLIMATE. BECAUSE OF THE LONG RESIDENCE TIMES OF THESE SPECIES, THE IMPACT IN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY LAST FOR YEARS INSTEAD OF MONTHS AS IN THE CASE OF DUST AND SOOT INJECTION.WE PROPOSE TO INVESTIGATE THESE EFFECTS USING A 1-D MODEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH INTERACTIVE TREATMENT OF RADIATION, CHEMISTRY, AND DYNAMICS. THIS STUDY WILL PROVIDE ESTIMATES OF THE CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC OPTICAL PROPERTIES AND COMPOSITION AND THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE TRACE GASES' GREENHOUSE EFFECT TO THE COOLING DUE TO DUST AND SOOT.