Proliferation Import Model

Intelligence analysts must contend with a large volume of complex information on the Third World procurement of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation has developed Chemical Weapons and Nuclear Capabilities Acquisition Process models (CWCAP and NCAP, respectively) for estimating the status of indigenous production and deployment of WMD. The purpose of this Phase I effort is to develop a proof-of-concept model of the import process supporting WMD procurement. While our proposed Proliferation Import Model (PIM) could ultimately (perhaps in Phase II) be integrated with CWCAP and NCAP for a comprehensive analysis of WMD procurement, it would have considerable value as a stand-alone tool as well. PIM features flexible graphical displays of the import networks used by WMD developers to obtain critical commodities for their programs. Data is entered for each supplier, route, transshipment point, entry port, etc., represented as nodes and arcs in the PIM graph. Nodes and arcs may then be "filtered" so that, for example, all import routes evidently in use and susceptible to interdiction may be highlighted. PIM would also provide a flexible and intuitive means to evaluate options regarding the monitoring, suppression, and interdiction of WMD importation. Anticipated Benefits: In addition to its primary benefit of providing proliferation analysts with a fast, flexible, and intuitive tool for entering intelligence data and tracking the WMD import process, the PIM methodology could be used by government organizations responsible for monitoring narcotics trafficking and by private companies seeking a means to gauge competition in new technologies by tracking the purchases of their competitors.