PREDICTING 3-D WINDFLOWS AT VENDENBERG AFB USING A MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODEL

THE PREDICTION OF MESOSCALE DISPERSION, FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE PURPOSES, IS CRITICALLY DEPENDENT UPON ACCURATELY FORECASTING THE 3-D WIND FIELD WITHIN THE DOMAIN OF INTEREST SEVERAL HOURS IN ADVANCE. CURRENTLY AVAILABLE EMERGENCY RESPONSE SYSTEMS, WHICH TYPICALLY USE SOME FORM OF GAUSSIAN DIFFUSION MODEL COMBINED WITH WIND FIELDS INTERPOLATED FROM SCATTERED SURFACE LAYER WIND MEASUREMENTS, ARE, UNDE RMANY MESOSCALE REGIMES, INCAPABLE OF DESCRIBING THE CURRENT COMPLEX TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION FOUND IN REGIONS SUCH AS VANDENBERG AFB, MUCH LESS PROJECTING SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE FUTURE. A NEW GENERATION OF MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS APPEARS CAPABLE OF FORECASTING THE DETAILED 3-D WINDFLOW IN COASTAL COMPLEX TERRAIN TO A DEGREE SUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE REGIONAL DIFFUSTION PREDICTIONS. PHASE I AIMS AT DEMONSTRATING THAT THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELING SYSTEM (RAMS) CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS TASK. IF SUCCESSFUL, THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR SUBSEQUENT EFFORTS TO PORT THE RAMS MODEL INTO AN OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.