NAVAL FORCE PLANNING DECISION AID

STR proposes to build a prototype Rapid Response Naval Force Planning Decision Support Tool. The prototype tool will examine Carrier Battle Group Force Structure issues (Phase II will add other warfare areas) in the context of a Mid East Joint and Combined Campaign Scenario. The scenario will be modeled in STR's Optimal Marginal Evaluator(OME-III/IV) so that the relative merits of force structure alternatives can be judged against simulated combat outcomes (probability of achieving objectives). To eliminate the principal disadvantages of this type of analysis (namely the time required for completion) STR will conduct sufficient analysis to build a series of outcome curves for each weapons platform, delivery vehicle, weapon and support systems of concern. Each of these systems will be defined by a series of characteristics. In the modeling phase of the project, each of these characteristics will be varied parametrically and the impact of the variation on scenario outcome defined. The impact of varying quantities of systems will also be examined parametrically. Results will be encoded in a graphic shell for easy analyst access. The analyst can then examine the impact of varying numbers of existing systems or can create a new/advanced weapon or system by changing the characteristics of the system it is designed to replace. The decision aid knows the impact of varying the characteristics of any system. It can then calculate the impact of replacing the old weapon with the new or of varying the mix of old and new systems. The decision aid can function around multiple scenarios at different levels of conventional war. It can be developed dynamically, scenarios can be added as they are completed. Given a force option, the Parametric Response Surface Naval Force Planning tool can access the response surface and immediately respond with the option's overall military effectiveness in all scenarios and assumption sets currently in the system. STR has constructed a similar system for the Air Force. This project will demonstrate the applicability of the technique to Naval Warfare.