URBAN HEAT ISLAND MODELING FOR SHORT-TERM ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING

THE FUNDAMENTAL OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROJECT IS TO IMPROVE THE SHORT-TERM ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTS REQUIRED FOR THE EFFICIENT OPERATION OF AN ELECTRIC UTILITY BY DEVELOPING A TECHNIQUE TO UTILIZE A HIGH RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC SIMULATION MODEL TO GENERATE INFORMATION ABOUT THE VARIATION OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OVER AREAS WHICH USE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY (I.E., URBAN AREAS). THE CURRENT ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING TECHNIQUES UTILIZE VERY LOW RESOLUTION INFORMATION GENERATED BY SUBJECTIVE MODIFICATIONS OF OUTPUT FROM RELATIVELY COARSE RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS. THE RESEARCH IS DESIGNED TO DETERMINE THE ABILITY OF A HIGH RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERICDYNAMICAL MODEL TO PROVIDE THE INFORMATION ABOUT THE VARIATION OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OVER AN URBAN AREA THAT IS NECESSARY TO EXPLAIN A GREATER PORTION OF THE WEATHER-RELATED VARIANCE IN ELECTRICAL USAGE THAN CAN BE DONE BY CURRENT TECHNIQUES. THE CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS OF THE RESEARCH IS THAT THE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND SHOULD HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON ENERGY USE AND ELECTRICAL LOADS IN LARGE URBAN AREAS, WHICH IS UNACCOUNTED FOR BY CURRENT SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING METHODS. A TECHNIQUE IS BEING DEVELOPED FOR SIMULATING URBAN AREAS AT HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO OBJECTIVELY PREDICT THE DISTRIBUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES IN AN URBAN AREA, CORRECTLY DETERMINING THE MAGNITUDE OF URBAN EFFECTS, AND QUANTITATIVELY RELATING THEM TO ENERGY USE IN A WAY WHICH IS OPERATIONALLY USEFUL TO ELECTRIC UTILITIES.