New Population Projection Method for Small Areas

A technique for forecasting the size of elderly and child populations in small geographic areaswill be developed and tested. Change in neighborhood populations will be studied, including increase inchildren and decrease in elderly living in older housing. The amount of change due to shifts in thenational age structure or to a second neighborhood "life cycle" will be measured. These effects will beincorporated in a new neighborhood population forecasting model that can be used in small-areaforecasts for many parts of the United States. Standard demographic mathematical models will beapplied in a new way to analyze housing turnover and neighborhood change. Census data will yield alongitudinal description of neighborhood population. County Assessor's Office data on home ownershipchanges (turnover) since 1960 will be used in a calculation of turnover rates by length of ownership.These will be applied in forecasts of turnover and of the neighborhood population's age distribution.Geographic Information Systems computer software will be used to analyze data and display results.It is expected that those planning senior services, school districts, residential developers, health careproviders, and others will be interested in purchasing improved forecasts of elderly and child populationsin small areas.