STANDARD DECISION ANALYSIS MODULES FOR KNOWLEDGE-BASED PLANNING SUPPORT

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROGRAM IS TO DESIGN DECISION-ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR THE SUPPORT OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED PLANNING. CLASSICAL PLANNING SYSTEMS RELY ON A COMPLETE AND CERTAIN DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT. REAL WORLD PLANNING PROBLEMS IN SUCH AREAS AS CRISIS PLANNING AND BATTLEFIELD MANAGEMENT MUST BE SOLVED IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY AND INCOMPLETE KNOWLEDGE. DECISION ANALYSIS PROVIDES THE TOOLS FOR MODELLING PREFERENCES, BELIEFS, AND UNCERTAINTIES FOUND IN THESE PROBLEMS. THIS PROGRAM WILL DESIGN OPERATORS FOR THE INCREMENTAL CONSTRUCTION OF DECISION MODELS AND A SET OF EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR PROCESSING THESE MODELS. DECISION MODELS WILL BE DEFINED USING A CLASS INHERITANCE HIERARCHY IN AN OBJECTORIENTED LANGUAGE TO FACILITATE THE DESIGN OF CUSTOM REPRESENTATIONS. BUILT-IN REPRESENTATIONS INCLUDE INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS, CONTINGENT INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS, AND BELIEF NETWORKS. EVALUATION TOOLS WILL BE DESIGNED FOR THE EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS WITHIN THE MODEL AS WELL AS EVALUATION OF DECISION POLICIES. SEVERAL ANALYSIS TOOLS WILL BE DESIGNED TO ALLOW THE PLANNER TO GAIN MAXIMUM INSIGHT FROM EACH MODEL. THESE TOOLS INCLUDE DETERMINISTIC, OPEN, AND CLOSED-LOOP SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, AND VALUE OF INFORMATION AND VALUE OF CONTROL CALCULATION. THIS PROGRAM BENEFITS THE PLANNING COMMUNITY BY PROVIDING A COMMON FRAMEWORK FOR THE DEFINITION AND EVALUATION OF DECISION MODELS. THE TOOLS DEVELOPED UNDER THIS PROGRAM FACILITATE THE ENGINEERING OF ANY APPLICATION REQUIRING DECISION ANALYSIS. KNOWLEDGE INDUSTRIES (KI) PLANS TO USE THESE TOOLS TO DEVELOP A NEW GENERATION OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR APPLICATIONS RANGING FROM MEDICAL DIAGNOSIS TO THE CONTROL AND DESIGN OF COMPLEX MILITARY SYSTEMS.