Program Models for Rural Social and Economic Systems

Simulation models that replicate the dynamics of rural growth and decline would provide an invaluable analytical tool for rural leaders, program administrators and community professionals. The system dynamics methodology offers a structured approach to collecting and organizing the knowledge needed to develop models that capture the essential feedback relationships that describe the elements of the rural system. System dynamics models can interrelate social, educational, economic, demographic, environmental and agricultural aspects of a community so as to reproduce the long-term dynamic behavior of a rural area. The proposed models would incorporate a user-friendly interface to permit users to analyze a community's characteristics and use the model to explore how and why a community responds as it does to changing social and economic forces. The model development process will include input and review from a wide variety of local community representatives and rural professionals. Initial model development will draw on professional and community resources in the Eastern Shore area of Maryland.