OFFICER FORCE STRUCTURE PLANNING MODEL

SAG CORPORATION PROPOSES TO DEVELOP AND ESTIMATE A MODEL OF U.S. ARMY OFFICER RETENTION BEHAVIOR USING A PANEL-PROBIT (ACOL-2) SPECIFICATION TO CONTROL FOR UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY. THIS RETENTION EQUATION SERVES AS THE KEYSTONE OF A SUBSEQUENT (PHASE II) OFFICER FORCE STRUCTURE PLANNING MODEL. THE FSPM WILL PROVIDE RELIABLE ESTIMATES OF THE PERSONNEL-FLOW IMPLICATIONS OF POLICY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES. USEFUL ANALYTICAL TOOLS ARE CRUCIAL IN A PERIOD OF DRASTIC ARMY FORCE STRUCTURE CHANGES. WE OFFER A WELLSTRUCTURED, PROVEN APPROACH TO THE PHASE I RESEARCH, BASED ON EXPERIENCE IN MANY RELATED PROJECTS. TASK 1 LAYS OUT THE MODEL'S THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK, INCLUDING THE SPECIFICATION OF AN ACOL-2 STRUCTURE IN THE UNOBSERVED COMPONENT OF THE ACOL DECISION RULE. TASK 1 ALSO RESOLVES KEY ISSUES SUCH AS DEFINING OFFICER OBLIGATION AND THE RETENTION DECISION POINT. TASK 2 BUILDS THE ESTIMATION MODEL; SELECTS THE APPROPRIATE ESTIMATION METHOD; AND IDENTIFIES AND SPECIFIES DATA. TASK 3 ESTIMATES THE RETENTION EQUATIONS FOR ONE OCCUPATIONAL SPECIALTY. FINALLY, TASK 4 INTERPRETS FINDINGS, AND ASSESSES APPLICABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY TO A PC-BASED FSPM. THE SAG TEAM POSSESSES THE EXPERIENCE AND EXPERTISE NECESSARY TO DESIGN AND ACCOMPLISH A HIGH-QUALITY ANALYSIS OF ARMY OFFICER RETENTION BEHAVIOR.