THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS OF COLD-SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS

THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL FOR THIS RESEARCH EFFORT IS TO DEVELOP A GREATER UNDERSTANDING OF THE DYNAMICAL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST COLD SEASON SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENTS AND TO NUMERICALLY SIMULATE THESE EVENTS IN ORDER TO PROVIDE HIGHER QUALITY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO THE FORECASTER. THE PHASE I OBJECTIVE IS TO SHOW THE FEASIBILITY OF USING A MESO-B SCALE DYNAMICAL MODEL TO ASSIST IN THE REAL-TIME FORECASTING OF THESE EVENTS BY DEMONSTRATING THAT SUCH A MODEL CAN (1) ACCURATELY REPRODUCETHE SEQUENCE OF DYNAMICAL EVENTS LEADING TO COLD SEASON SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES; (2) DEFINE THE MESOSCALE SPACE-TIME ENVELOPE OF THE EVENTS; (3) PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INFORMATION TO PERMIT A CLOUD-SCALE NUMERICAL MODEL TO DIFFERENTIATE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CONVECTION OVER MESO-B SCALE DISTANCES; AND (4) EXECUTE WITH OPERATIONALLY-AVAILABLE DATAIN REAL-TIME ON A HIGH-END WORKSTATION COMPUTER. THE PHASE I OBJECTIVES WILL BE ADDRESSED BY EXECUTING AND ANALYZING MESOSCALE AND CLOUD SCALE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS FOR TWO RECENT EAST COAST SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENTS. THE PHASE I RESEARCH WILL PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION FOR THE PHASE II WORK WHICH IS INTENDED TO DEVELOP A PROTOTYPE FOR A MESO-B SCALE DYNAMICAL SIMULATION SYSTEM CAPABLE OF EXECUTING IN A FORECAST OFFICE AND PROVIDING RELIABLE MESO-B SCALE DEPICTIONS OF PARAMETERS LINKED TO THE OCCURRENCE OF SPECIFIC TYPES OF EAST COAST CONVECTIVE PHENOMENA.