Advanced Modeling of the Ionosphere and Upper Atmosphere

"Phase I results have clearly demonstrated the potential of the application of data assimilation techniques for modeling and forecasting of the electron densities in the ionosphere. The results show a significant reduction in the ionospheric forecast erroreven with a relatively modest number of simulated data samples assimilated into the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM).In Phase II we will deliver a practical forecasting system based on the theoretical principals and prototype software modules developed and tested during Phase I investigation. The proposed product is paramount for enabling precise navigation,uninterrupted communications, high accuracy mapping, and remote surveillance.Following recommendations of the Air Force technical personnel, the system will be geared toward producing nested grid high-resolution real-time regional and local nowcasts and forecasts of electron density distributions. Generated distributions will beused to determine propagation conditions for different signal frequencies and converted to high-precision GPS coordinate corrections. The system will be initially implemented for high-latitude regions over the continental US. The unique ability toaccurately forecast regional ionospheric conditions will allow the Air Force or civilian wireless connectivity providers to predict potential communication interferences and make proactive routing decisions or operate on different frequencies in respon