RISKM COMPUTER MODEL FOR COST/RISK ANALYSIS

THIS SBIR PROPOSES THE FEASIBILITY OF APPLYING ENGINEERING ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES AS A COST/RISK/SCHEDULE ESTIMATING METHODOLOGY FOR COMPLEX DOD FULL SCALE DEVELOPMENT (FSD) PROGRAMS. THE PROPOSED COST ESTIMATING METHODOLOGY TAKES INTO ACCOUNT DEVELOPMENT RISK, RISK ABATEMENT AND ALTERNATE COMPONENT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS, DEADLINE MEETING, SUSTAINING ENGINEERING, MILESTONE TESTS AND "FLY OFFS", AND UNEXPECTED EXTERNAL CONSTRAINTS SUCH AS COST CEILINGS AND DEPENDENT PARALLEL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS. IT IS NUMERICALLY IMPLEMENTED IN A SPARTA PROPRIETARY COMPUTER PROGRAM CALLED RISKM. THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES APPLIED IN RISKM ARE SIMULATION AND MONTE CARLO METHODS. RISKM COMBINES THESE TECHNIQUES WITH THREE SYSTEM ENGINEERING AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES: THE WBS, CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM) AND CLASSICAL RISK ANALYSIS.