Dynamic Situation Assessment and Prediction: Risk-Advised Planning

"The complexity and tempo of modern conflict, and the severity of its results, prevent us from having a 'perfect plan' prior to execution. At the same time, information resources are constantly delivering information on adversaries and on execution results.Even so, uncertainty is always present. Therefore, a) real-time, dynamic, in situ planning and replanning are required to exploit changing information and conditions, b) the planning process must include information development, especially, actor andorganization modeling, and c) planning must be managed in light of critical risks. We call this Risk-Advised Planning, and propose to implement technology support for it herein.Risk-Advised Planning synthesizes planning, human (cognitive and social) system modeling, and decision/risk analysis. Simulation experiments (what-if studies) produce predictions of the evolution of situations, and scenarios for COA performance. We use(normative) decision modeling to: assess risk, identify COA flaws and diagnose their causal sources, detect alert conditions, and summarize explanations of risk assessments. Sensitivity and value of control calculations on the decision model recommendopportunities for COA improvement, both to exploit opportunities and repair risks. Predictions and assessments combine in the decision model to focus and bracket analysis. Focusing aids and multi-resolution representation and analysis methods underwritefaster-than-real-t