Tools to Support the Assesment of Planned Courses of Action

Evaluating a course of action (COA) is not trivial. The planner needs to have a strong experience base to detect unintended consequences, and to imagine how the COA will be carried out in the context of the situation. Recent research has identified a variety of several different strategies for COA evaluation, ranging from a structured examination of alternative COAs to a mental wargaming of individual COAs. The choice of strategy depends on factors such as time pressure and uncertainty. Currently, there are no adequate tools to support naturalistic strategies of COA evaluation. In Phase I, we propose to identify the COA evaluation strategies used by skilled planners, and to determine the primary barriers to rapid and effective COA evaluation. We will conduct cognitive task analyses with experience planners along with observation of planning exercises to ensure that we address the most damaging barriers to COA evaluation. Based on these finding, we will select the tools and technologies that offer the greatest potential for improving the COA evaluation process. In Phase II we will adapt these tools and technologies so they can be demonstrated evaluated and improved.