Software Engineering and Estimation for Decision Architectures (SEEDA)

Software schedule, cost, and risk assessment is a discipline that very few have mastered. This can be gleaned from the large percent of large software intensive developmental programs that encounter schedule and cost overruns, not only because of lack ofadequate program controls but also because of the unknown risk associated with using new technologies and paradigms. A current emerging trend in system development is the use of Decision Architectures, using decision theory and knowledge management andengineering. The schedule, cost, and risk implications when using this technology in major developmental programs is currently unknown and current estimation models do not specifically address system development using new paradigms, such as DecisionArchitectures. FORELL proposes to extend the widely recognized Sage estimation model to address Decision Architecture based system development. FORELL?s KBArchitectingTM is a new engineering paradigm that will support the development of systems usingDecision Architectures. FORELL will evaluate BMDO?s Decision Architecture system development process to define the appropriate metrics. An interface to Sage will be designed to leverage existing algorithms and new predictive algorithms will be identifiedand designed to better support software schedule, cost, and risk assessment for Decision Architecture based system development. A well-defined Decision Architecture based system development process with specified products and appropriate metrics willprovide the basis to better evaluate and assess schedules, cost, and risk, which are major areas of concern for each and every major system acquisition program. Providing an interface to an established and well recognized estimation tool, such as Sage, andcomplementing existing predictive algorithms and domain knowledge bases with the unique algorithms and knowledge bases required for Decision Architecture based system development, FORELL will provide the basis for a way to provide insight in these futuresystem developments, minimizing schedule and cost overruns.