TRANSIT SYSTEM COMPUTER SIMULATION MODELS

THIS PROPOSAL DESCRIBES A MICRO-LEVEL STRATEGIC TRANSIT SIMULATION MODEL THAT QUANTIFIES THE DIFFICULT TRADEOFFS BETWEEN COST, PERFORMANCE AND TIME. THE MODEL UTILIZES SYSTEM DYNAMICS TO CAPTURE THE COMPLEX, NON-LINEAR FEEDBACK STRUCTURE THAT GOVERNS SYSTEM BEHAVIOR, INCORPORATING SUCH TRANSIT OPERATIONS AS VEHICLE MANAGEMENT, SERVICE LEVELS, FARES, RIDERSHIP, MARKETING, REVENUES, CONGESTION, POLLUTION, ALTERNATIVE MODES AND PERFORMANCE MONITORING. MANAGERS CAN USE THE MODEL TO TRACE THE "WHAT-IF?" CONSEQUENCES OF ALTERNATIVE DECISIONS ON TRANSIT OPERATIONS SO THAT THEY MAY PLAN AND ENACT EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES. THE PROPOSAL DESCRIBES THE DEVELOPMENT, TESTING, VALIDATION, OPERATION, INTERFACE AND ASSESSMENT OF THE PHASE I MODEL. THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL PRODUCE A PROTOTYPE SOFTWARE PACKAGE, COMPLETE WITH MODEL AND USER INTERFACE, SUITABLE FOR DISTRIBUTION AND TESTING BY A RANGE OF TRANSIT OFFICIALS.