Small Area Demographic Estimates for China with Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial M

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Small Area Demographic Estimates for China with Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial Modeling China is experiencing a rapid transition from a central planning economy to a marketing economy. Tremendous changes are occurring in the patterns of urbanization, migration, and regional development. Great challenges and opportunities exist in characterizing and managing the economic, environmental and human impacts of such change. In collaboration with the University of Michigan China Data Center and the All China Market Research Company, (Beijing, China), the first-ever release of People's Republic of China 2000 Census data at the township level (including geographic location data) is now available to researchers outside of China. This valuable and unprecedented data source reports more demographics, down to smaller geographic units, than ever before. Over 50,000 townships with approximately 1,500 unique data items will be delivered in a geodemographic information system, AllocateChina. This Phase I study, Small Area Demographic Estimates for China, will determine feasibility and test methodologies to update the People's Republic of China 2000 Census data to 2006, producing estimates at the township and 1km grid levels. These estimates will draw upon a variety of data sources, including: Remote Sensing data, GIS information (such as elevation, land use, lakes and rivers), demographic information (such as natural population growth, migration, education and employment); and economic data (such as investment, and GDP), and other factors available at various spatial levels. Both spatial modeling and standard demographic estimating techniques will be developed and employed. These demographic updates will offer a valuable addition to the existing AllocateChina system. Current data on the spatial distribution of population in a GIS format is critical in planning and evaluating needs for health, social, and commercial services. A substantial opportunity exists to provide data to both Chinese and United States agencies and companies that seek to serve the Chinese market. Current information on where population growth is occurring in China is critical in predicting environmental impacts of increased urbanization and energy usage. A better understanding of the current age/sex distribution and other characteristics of the population will facilitate planning and resource allocation for services such as health care, education, housing, and humanitarian aid.