CONFIGURAL THEORY FOR QUANTIFYING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SHIP SELF-DEFENSE WEAPONS IN TACTICAL ENGAGEMENT

MULTIPLE-TARGET, MULTIPLE-WEAPON ENCOUNTERS, NOT ISOLATED ENCOUNTERS BETWEEN SINGLE TARGETS AND SINGLE WEAPONS, TYPIFY COMBAT. CONFIGURAL THEORY IS A MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTUALIZATION OF COMBAT -SPECIFICALLY, A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE BEHAVIOR OF WEAPONS IN USE AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS -THAT ENCOMPASSES A FUNDAMENTAL ELEMENT OF MULTIPLE-TARGET, MULTIPLE-WEAPON ENCOUNTERS EXCLUDED BY THE CUSTOMARY CONCEPTUALIZATIONS AND THE DERIVATIVE MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PARTICULARLY THOSE USED IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT. THE ELEMENT IS CONFIGURATION: THE DISTRIBUTION IN SPACE OF THE TARGETS AND THE WEAPONS INVOLVED IN AN ENGAGEMENT. FOR PROPOSED AND DEVELOPMENTAL WEAPONS THE CUSTOMARY CONCEPTS, BECAUSE THEY EXCLUDE CONFIGURATION, CAN OVER-STATE COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS BY FACTORS OF TWO TO TEN OR EVEN MORE AND CAN MAKE INFERIOR WEAPONS APPEAR TO BE BETTER THAN WEAPONS THAT ARE ACTUALLY SUPERIOR. DEVELOPING THE ELEMENTS OF A CONFIGURAL THEORY OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SHIP SELF-DEFENSE WEAPONS IN TACTICAL ENGAGEMENTS IS THE OVERALL OBJECTIVE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH. THE KEY PORTION IS FORMULATING THE MATHEMATICAL BASIS FOR QUANTITIATIVELY DESCRIBING HOW SHIP SELFDEFENSE WEAPONS BEHAVE IN COMBAT AND HOW THAT BEHAVIOR RELATES TO THE INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SHIPS, THEIR CONFIGURATION, THEIR SELF-DEFENSE WEAPONS, THE CONFIGURATION OF THOSE WEAPONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL SHIPS, THE CONFIGURATION OF THE ATTACKER'S PLATFORMS, AND THE ATTACKER'S ANTISHIP WEAPONS.