TACTIC-D II.2 Techniques to Adjust Computational Trends Involving Changing Data

The US Navy recognizes the potential for big data to facilitate force readiness. However, the analysis of such data presents numerous challenges, among them, (1) the evolving nature of Navy tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) hindering apples-to-apples comparisons; (2) the presence of many interdependent platforms, making data complex; and (3) presenting analyses to humans, making understandability relevant.The focus of this effort is twofold: (1) provide plug-in technologies for data analytics and (2) bolster the predictive capabilities of Soar Technology’s (SoarTech’s) work on the Aggregated Data Evaluation & Prediction Tool (ADEPT, renamed Virtual Imaging of Naval Aviator Logbooks [VINAL]) software system for use by the Chief of Naval Air Training (CNATRA). The plug-in technologies (such as those supporting effects analysis, causal reasoning, predicate induction, time-invariant skill trend analysis, predictive model validation and audit) provide different complementary lenses by which a user may understand predictive outcomes and the data supporting them. These technologies also mitigate the risk of technological obsolescence by allowing the plug-ins to evolve without affecting the supporting framework or workflow.SoarTech demonstrated that VINAL can predict training outcomes during advanced flight training using only a student naval aviator’s primary flight training data. SoarTech continues to research and develop the VINAL capabilities with a special focus on CNATRA’s use cases. The plug-in technologies mentioned above will provide VINAL with a facile mechanism for extension and resilience as data and training change over time.For the Warfighter, the capabilities developed here will not only guide instructor pilots to make more informed decisions about how to support their students but encourage data exploration and critical thinking about issues related to force readiness and proficiency across echelons in the military establishment.