A Knowledge-Based Indications and Warning Toolkit for Mixed-Initiative Information Warfare Analysis

"Shipboard intelligence centers deployed in littoral regions arethe "front line" for naval intelligence gathering. Onboardcryptanalysts need to monitor multiple information sources fortrends and deviations from expected norms, detect and properlyinterpret the unusual, and generate Indications and Warning(I&W). Anticipated reductions in shipboard manning and increasesin the quantity of available sensor data will further exacerbateworkload for intelligence personnel. New information fusiontechnology is required to help intelligence analysts meet thesechallenges.In Phase I, we constructed an ontology of the I&W generationdomain, developed pattern scripting tools to capture patterns ofpotential interest, and designed a data-driven inference engineto identify enemy activities from large volumes of sensor data.In Phase II, we will implement a robust prototype system thatfacilitates the timely generation of I&Ws. The pattern scriptingtools will be extended to represent uncertainty using qualitativeprobabilities, and the inference engine will be extended toexploit this representation. Finally, tools will be developed todisplay the pattern detections in an analyst-friendly way andprovide timely alerts. The utility of the Phase II prototypewill be evaluated using realistic scenarios and simulated sensordata.BENEFITS: The technology developed under this program will immediately benefit cryptanalysts at naval intelligence centers, but also