Modeling Asymmetric Threats to Critical Infrastructure

The proposed project will provide the detail necessary for all steps of a functional prototype of an assessment instrument to determine terrorist threat and likelihood of an organization being targeted for attack. The purpose of the Phase I proposal is topresent a final design of such a system with tested and demonstrated functional components. Based on a reliable and validated behavioral model, the application proposed will focus on the identification and use of neural network based predictive patternscombined with an expert, rule-base component that augments historical information with targeting expertise of terrorism subject matter experts. A reporting mechanism whereby results would be embedded within interpretive text will be presented as part ofthe instrument design. Currently, no scientifically reliable and validated commercial application exists that is capable of accurately anticipating terrorist targeting. Given that the application designed is constructed and validated, it will be possibleto provide organizations with a proactive capability that indicates weaknesses in security based on assessed targeting and associated vulnerabilties. Such an assessment, based on the organization's characteristics and current world events, will allow theorganization to enhance security in a resouceful and efficient manner.