Battlefield Weather Probabilities

Effective management of battlefield weather risk requires a clear understanding of the likelihood of weather events critical to military operations. By combining contemporary capabilities in meteorological observations, atmospheric science, computerprediction, and communications, we will design a multiscale ensemble prediction system (MEPS) for predicting battlefield weather probabilities. This system will involve readily available large-scale ensemble forecasts, ensembles of MM5 forecasts at highresolution, and a forecast calibration process.Key design issues will be resolved by Weather Ventures in collaboration with the Penn State MM5 group using results from a remarkable high-resolution forecast experiment performed in the summer of 2003 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA). This data set, including some 1500 mesoscale forecasts in a virtual ensemble of 32 members, provides a rich and unprecedented source of information for designing a MEPS for battlefield weather probabilities. The data will help us explore thebalance between forecast skill, reliability, and cost.To best serve commanders and soldiers, battlefield probabilistic forecasts must be visualized and summarized in decision aids. Work in progress on visualizing probabilistic forecasts and constructing decision aids will be extended to the battlefield case,in preparation for a more concentrated effort in Phase II.