Dynamic Situation Assessment and Prediction: Risk-Advised Planning

The complexity and tempo of modern conflict, and the severity of its possibleresults, prevent us from having a 'perfect plan' prior to execution. At thesame time, information resources are constantly delivering information onadversaries and on execution results. Therefore, real-time, dynamic, in situplanning and replanning are required to exploit changing information and conditions.Our approach synthesizes methods and technology for planning, human (cognitiveand social) system modeling, and decision/risk analysis. Simulation experiments(what-if studies) produce predictions of the evolution of situations, and eachCOA's associated performance. We use (normative) decision modeling to: assessrisk, identify COA flaws, diagnose causal sources of flaws, detect alert conditions,and efficiently summarize explanations of risk assessments. Sensitivity and othercalculations on the decision model recommend opportunities for COA improvement,both to exploit opportunities and repair unwarranted risks. Predictions andassessments combine in the decision model to focus and bracket analysis. Focusingaids and multi-resolution representation and analysis methods underwritefaster-than-real-time performance.Synergia has produced a concept of operations, and methods and technologies formodeling, simulation, and organizational risk analysis to support planning. Wepropose to develop and refine them for dynamic situation assessment and prediction.Synergia will create the capability to produce robust plans - plans that evolve and that tend with high probability to capture or preserve most of the valueat stake and mitigate potential for major losses. This will markedly improveour ability to fight modern wars, and to produce methods and technologies forplanning and critical business decision-making.