Adaptive Artificial Intelligence for Next-Generation Conflict Simulation

In an era of WMD belonging to rogue states and terrorist entities, a speedy response to attack can be too late. Fighting in new and innovative ways requires thinking in new and innovative ways. New wargaming training tools are required to assist friendlyforces to be proactive and enabling potential attacks to be prevented. These tools must be able to swiftly create and assess potential threat and counter-measure scenarios. For several years, Hexagon Interactive has been developing innovative AI technologyfor AFOSR to automate the creation and assessment of friendly and adversarial potential Courses of Actions (COAs). The AI simulates the decision-making processes of human organizations/populations under conditions of stress and hence provides probabilisticpredictions of their behavior in response to inputs.This Phase I proposes to conduct additional research and implement it in a computer simulation called CYBERWAR XXI ready for verification and validation testing as part of a future effort. The testscenario that Hexagon has been working on since 1998 is Near Future Iraq War. CYBERWAR XXI expands the definition of weapons system to include not only conventional but also unconventional and unorthodox weapons systems required in asymmetric and operations other than war (OOTW). Taking into account PMESII (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure and Information), CYBERWAR XXI enables multiple players to roleplay at the strategic level, the National Command Authorities of variouswestern alliance and middle-east nations as well as terrorist organizations. Increased use of conflict simulations in peacetime training for orders development would help officers execute the staff wargame in a more objective fashion, giving theircommander a better product. Networking technology can enable commanders and staff officers to quickly link their computers for a networked conflict simulation for training and COA development.Since the product is easy to use and will run on easily accessible commercial hardware, it can be used as a training tool providing an inexpensive and easily utilized means of teaching and understanding modern strategic-operational level warfare. Such atool will be invaluable for training personnel in the novel decision-making processes required by asymmetrical and other unconventional modes of warfare.The fully-developed Artificial Intelligence technology will also be a valuable product which will be useful to other DoD programs such as counter-terrorism. Simulations are also a critical part of modern weapons systems developments. They have manyadvantages, including the exploration of alternate strategies and tactics in which these weapons systems can be used, and the prediction of countermeasures, which may in turn be neutralized. Simulations have advantages in saving time, space, manpower andcosts in the training of personnel. They can also be used by policy makers and strategists to determine alternative strategies and tactics.The AI's ability to model organizational decision-making and cascading effects will be useful in a variety of civilian and business training applications. Disaster relief planners can use the tool to simulate the effects of disasters (natural and man-made)on civilian infrastructure in order to help train decision-makers and responders to maximize the efficiency of their relief operations.Markets for the technology include the US and its allies, including friendly professional military education programs, both in residence and distance learning, as well as US and international college defense studies programs.The potential commercial market is enormous. Using the predictive AI technology in commercial products designed to help corporations analyze their management decision-making processes will make them more efficient and to help them get inside thedecision-making loop of competitors. Businesses will be able to simulate areas of management through the advanced AI autonomous agents in order to predict how best to organize and manage their resources. The engine will also be available for license tocreate entertainment and business strategy games that are currently unavailable in the commercial market. Last year, this represented a 6.9 billion dollar market.