TOWARDS A METHODOLOGY OF PLURAL ANALYSIS: MULTIPLE APPROACHES TO MODELING JUDGEMENT

THIS RESEARCH ADDRESSES A MAJOR DEFECT PERMEATING THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF DECISION SCIENCE. THE MODELING OF UNCERTAINITY, CHOICE AND VALUE FOR PRESCRIPTIVE PURPOSES IS TYPICALLY SINGULAR, I.E., A SINGLE APPROACH IS USED. INDEED, DECISION THEORY HAS BEEN LARGELY SILENT ON WHAT TO DO WHEN MULTIPLE APPROACHES HAVE BEEN PURSUED AND YIELD INCONSISTENT FINDINGS. THE OPPORTUNITY TO FORMALIZE AND EXTEND THE PLURALISM OF EVERYDAY THINKING IS THEREBY LOST. THIS RESEARCH AIMS AT EXTENDING THE SCOPE OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE TO INCLUDE PLURAL ANALYSIS; IN PARTICULAR, TO DEVELOP THEORY AND TECHNIQUE FOR MANAGING AND OPTIMIZING THE PROCESS OF PLURAL ANALYSIS. THE RESEARCH APPROACH WILLBE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY; A PSYCHOLOGIST (VON WINTERFELDT) WILLEXPLORE EMPIRICALLY HOW "CREATIVE STRESS" BETWEEN MODELING AND INTUITION CAN BE EXPLOITED; A MATHEMATICIAN (LINDLEY) WILL DEVELOP FORMAL MODELS FOR CODIFYING AND OPTIMIZING THE PLURAL ANALYSIS PROCESS; AN APPLIED DECISION SCIENTIST (BROWN) WILL ADAPT AND TEST THOSE INSIGHTS AND PARADIGMS FOR PRACTICAL USE IN ILLUSTRATIVE INSTANCES. PHASE I IS EXPECTED TO DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF A METHODOLOGY TO BE IMPLEMENTED, REFINED, AND EXTENDED IN PHASE II. IF SUCCESSFUL, RESEARCH WILL: FOSTER THE APPROPRIATE USE OF PLURAL, AS OPPOSED TO SINGULAR, ANALYSIS; ENHANCE THE PRACTICE OF MANAGEMENT AND DECISION SCIENCE, OPENING UP A MAJOR CLASS OF ANALYTIC STRATEGIES; GUIDE THE APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES BETWEEN ELEMENTS IN THAT STRATEGY; AND DEVELOP THE THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF DECISION SCIENCE.